With Biden’s Big Win on Mini-Tuesday, Sanders Campaign on the Ropes

Super Tuesday II 2020 USA Elections

Around 2 weeks ago, as the political sharks circled and many pundits declared the Biden campaign on life support, the former Vice president was under intense pressure to produce a signature win in South Carolina. Since what seems an eon ago, Biden has now delivered 3 consecutive massive electoral wins, seemingly clearing a direct and path to the Democratic nomination.

The 6 contests that comprised the “Mini-Tuesday” battle of March 10th, rapidly became viewed as a make-or-break day for former frontrunner Bernie Sanders. With the mass exodus of both progressive and moderate rival candidates, the Senator from Vermont now had the mano-a-mano battle that he desired.

As the saying goes, “be careful of what you wish for, because you might just get it.” What Sanders ended up getting was yet another electoral beatdown by Joe Biden, starting in the 3 “M’s” of the Midwest and South (Missouri, Michigan, Mississippi), where Biden dominated him. Sanders even failed to pass the 15% statewide threshold in Mississippi, somewhat surprising in a 2-person race.

The Vermont Senator had cancelled a planned rally in that state in order to focus upon Michigan, a move that clearly did not pan out. In the West, which was which was supposed to be Sanders’ stronghold, he won only in North Dakota (taking only 8 of 14 delegates), the smallest prize of the day, being outpolled in Idaho and even losing what was assumed to be one of his best states, Washington. The loss in Washington, with its 89 delegates, was particularly ominous, as a significant win there was deemed critical.

State White Hispanic African-American Asian
Michigan 75.8%     4.8%   13.9%   2.8%
Washington 70.4%   12.2%    3.7%   8.0%
Missouri 80.1%    4.0% 11.6%   1.9%
Mississippi 57.3%    3.0% 37.2%   1.0%
Idaho 82.8%  12.0%   0.7%   1.3%
North Dakota 86.6%    3.3%   2.0%   1.2%

 

Biden has consolidated support, whether it is a winning Democratic Party coalition or merely and anti-Sanders alignment remains to be seen. Regardless, the result was another nail in the coffin of Sanders’ latest nomination run.

The 53%-37% loss by Sanders in Michigan (70 delegates to Biden versus 55 for Sanders) and his failure to fully mobilize his core base in Washington state, has crippled his electability narrative. The night was so devastating that Senator Sanders did not bother to give a post-election speech, retreating silently to his home state of Vermont.

What the night showed was that although Sanders’ young and progressive voting blocs are brash and active, they did not come out in meaningful numbers, while the Biden campaign cobbled together a coalition of moderates, conservatives, and even the “somewhat liberal” voters. Biden consistently outpaced Sanders with women voters by significant figures, and the former Vice President’s core strength among African-Americans and with older voters helped him run up big margins in some states.

Something else important to note is that for the first time in this presidential primary season, the Biden campaign moved ahead of the Sanders’ campaign in terms of adverting budgets, outspending Sanders $3.02 million to $2.97 million in Michigan and in other key Mini-Tuesday states, according to data from Advertising Analytics.

Indeed, there was a sea change in ad spending by the Biden campaign since Super Tuesday, when he was monstrously outspent by his opponents. While that did not derail the former Vice President in the Super Tuesday states, it was no longer a tenable strategy. The shift paid off nicely on Mini-Tuesday.

On a final note, it is important to remember that 199 of the 352 delegates (56.5%) in contention on March 10th were allocated on the basis of individual congressional districts.

In essence, each state has numerous pools of delegates, one for each district (ranging anywhere from 2 to 11 delegates available in any of the districts voting on March 10th), as well as a general pool of delegates for each state this is allocated based upon the percentage of the statewide vote totals.

In order to win any delegates form any of these pools, a candidate must win 15% of the vote for that pool (so 15% in an individual district, or 15% for the statewide allotment).

On Mini-Tuesday, there were 39 district pools up for grabs, ranging from 1 general district in North Dakota to 14 districts in Michigan. Naturally, pools with an odd number of delegates cannot be divided evenly, so one candidate is guaranteed to win at least one more than the other, even if only a few votes separate their tallies.

Districts with even numbers of delegates tend to split down the middle, unless a candidate wins big in that district. In a district comprised of 8 delegates, the leader would need needs 56.3% to get 5 of them, otherwise a 55%-45% outcome would see a 4-4 split of delegates from that district. In districts with an even number of delegates, the split is most often even. Therefore, when candidates are fairly close in vote totals, there is not a huge difference in the number of delegates awarded.

So if a candidate can stay close in voting in many districts, there will not be much difference in the margins of delegates that the two candidates are awarded. This means that there is an outsized advantage to rolling up big numbers in specific districts, and it also means that unless a candidate can do that, he/she will have a difficult time making up a large delegate gap.

Latest Projections for Delegate Allotment from the Six Contests on March 10

  Biden District delegates Biden statewide delegates Sanders District delegates Sanders  statewide delegates TOTAL Delegates
Michigan 46 24 36 19 (7055)  = 125
Washington 32 16 26 15 (4841)  =  89
Missouri 28 16 16 8 (4424)  =  68
Mississippi 21  13 2 0 (342)    =  36
Idaho 7 4 6 3 (119)    =  20
North Dakota 4 2 5 3  (68)     =  14
TOTAL 138 75 91 48 (213139)= 352

 

Biden: 138+75 = 213 total delegates;  Sanders: 91+48= 139 total delegates

The trends we saw on Mini-Tuesday, and on Super Tuesday, have helped Biden more than Sanders, since Biden was able to amass large percentage vote totals in numerous districts (especially in the Southern states), while Sanders’ margins of victory (in individual districts and in a few states) have been much smaller, translating into a more even split of delegates in those places.

This process makes it extremely difficult (if not impossible) for Sanders to make up the necessary ground in terms of delegates. For example, based upon this system, even though Sanders was able to get nearly 15% of the vote in Mississippi, he got only 2 of 36 delegates there.

While the process probably did not hurt Sanders too much on Mini-Tuesday, going forward (and backward) it is very detrimental to him. Although in South Carolina, Sanders’ 20% of the vote got him 28% of the delegates, but by racking up large margins in districts, Biden’s 48.6% of the vote got him 72% of the delegates. In Alabama, 63% of the vote garnered Biden 85% of the delegates. Sanders has not been able to win states by wide margins, and Biden is likely to win delegate-rich states like Florida (219), Georgia (105) by margins similar to those in Alabama and South Carolina.

According to up-to-date polling, other large upcoming primaries, such as Ohio (136) and Illinois (155), are also unlikely to be closer affairs (in fact, Biden has nearly 20-point leads in each of them). Even if Sanders can win them, and that is a long shot, the delegate split would likely be minimal since he would probably win individual districts or states by close margins. In 2016, Hillary Clinton beat Sanders 56%-43% in Ohio for an 81-62 delegate split. The 19-delegate margin is far less than Biden will get from smaller Southern states, and it is not likely that Sanders could even win by such a margin (if he can win at all).

In Florida, where Biden currently has a huge lead, Clinton beat Sanders in 2016 64%-33% for 141-73 delegate margin. After Sanders’ ill-advised comments in praise of Fidel Castro, most of Florida’s large Cuban community has turned against Sanders, which further undermines his efforts in the Sunshine state.

The only good news is that Sanders has maintained his lead in the 3 states in which Super Tuesday vote tallies are still underway: California, Colorado, and Utah. However,  that news was swamped by the electoral beating he took on Mini-Tuesday. The tide clearly turned against him.

Updated figures for these 3 primaries, and a schedule of all the Democratic primaries and caucuses can be found at the end (bottom) of this article.

DRILLING DEEPER:

The MINI-TUESDAY CONTESTS BY THE NUMBERS

MICHIGAN (125 delegates + 22 superdelegates)

The main prize was Michigan, with its 125 delegates up for grabs, was crucial for Sanders both mathematically and symbolically. In addition to a vital need to make up ground in the delegate count, this was the place that Sanders scored a stunning upset victory over Hillary Clinton in the 2016 campaign, an event that revitalized his campaign. Given that Donald Trump wrested the state away from the Democrats in the last general election for a crucial 16 electoral votes, the importance of Michigan could not be underestimated.

Among the key factors in Joe Biden’s 53%-37% win were a huge spike in voters and over performance in crucial demographics in which Hillary Clinton underperformed in 2016. Firstly, turnout in the state was way up, leaping from about 1.2 million in 2016 to about 1.7 million this year.

Secondly, Biden performed far better with key demographic groups than Clinton did four years ago. If either one of those things happens in November, Trump will have a difficult time winning the state again.

In Michigan, 125 delegates (82 from Congressional districts + 43 statewide) to the Democratic National Convention are pledged to presidential contenders based on the results of the March 3rd vote. A mandatory 15% threshold is required in order for a presidential contender to be allocated National Convention delegates from EITHER the congressional district or statewide level.

100% Reporting

MICHIGAN Total votes % of vote Congressional District Delegates State-wide Delegates Total Delegates
1: Biden  838,491 52.90% 46 24 70
2: Sanders 576,648 36.38% 36 19 55
3: Bloomberg 73,153 4.62% 0 0 0
4: Warren 26,038 1.64% 0 0 0
TOTAL VOTE 1,584,950    72  43 125

 

Sanders won in 2016 thanks to a surge in votes from counties that are mostly rural and predominantly (generally a haven for Republican voters in the general election), which blunted the vote from Michigan’s 3 largest counties: Wayne County, home to Detroit and about 2 million people, as well as Oakland and Macomb Counties, both near Detroit.

This time around, Biden racked up large wins in precisely those counties, taking them as follows Wayne County 170,000-112,000, Oakland County 141,000-85,000, and Macomb County 62,800-42,900. In fact, Biden won every county in the state on Tuesday. The fact that Sanders underperformed in rural counties, as he did last week in similar counties in Minnesota and Oklahoma, lends credence to the theory that much of that vote in 2016 was more  “not Hillary” than “pro-Bernie”.

In Michigan, Biden won white voters (72% of total voters) by a 51%-40% margin, and African-Americans (18% of total voters) by a 66%-27% margin. Bernie Sanders was able to garner the Hispanic vote 53%-39%, but that constituency only comprised 6% of those who voted. In pursuit of attracting the African-American voting bloc, New Jersey Senator Cory Booker campaigned in Michigan for Biden, while Bernie Sanders relied upon an endorsement from the Reverend Jesse Jackson, a presidential candidate back in 1988.

As several journalists pointed out, the optics of the Jackson endorsement said a great deal about the Sanders campaign, as that particular endorsement was loudly touted by Sanders and surrogates such as Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in front of a mostly white crowd.

      POPULATION DEMOGRAPHICS in MICHIGAN

State White Hispanic African-American Asian
Michigan 75.8%     4.8%    13.9%   2.8%

 

Biden edged out Sanders 47%-43% among men (46% of voters), and won by a wider margin (58%-35%) among women, who constituted 54% of voters. The age dynamics played out as it has done throughout the nomination process, with Sanders dominating among younger people, but performing weakly among older voters, who comprise a much larger portion of Democratic voters. In Michigan, the age 35-64 demographic, 42% of voters, was devastating for Sanders.

MICHIGAN 2020 Primary VOTING by AGE GROUP

AGE % of voters BIDEN SANDERS others
18-29 16% 19% 76% 5%
30-44 22% 42% 52% 6%
35-64 42% 62% 26% 12%
65+ 20% 71% 20% 9%

 

Meanwhile, although Sanders built his candidacy as the representative of progressive issues, Biden bested him with the 41% of voters who prioritized healthcare (58%-37%), as well as with the 18% who prioritized climate change (51%-44%). Senator Sanders prevailed amongst those who prioritized the issue of income equality, though not by a wide margin (45%-40%).

While Sanders won “very liberal” voters 65%-32%, they comprised only 21% of voters, with Biden winning the 40% of voters who identified as “somewhat liberal” by 55%-37%. Lastly, in terms of the ‘electability’ thesis, among the 58% of voters who would rather nominate a candidate with the “ability to beat Donald Trump”, Biden won handily (62%-30%).

The 82 district delegates are allocated (proportionally) to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of Michigan’s 14 Congressional districts, which means in order to get any delegates from a particular district, a candidate requires at least 15% of the vote from that district. An additional 43 delegates (27 at-large + 16 PLEOs) will be allocated in accordance with the statewide vote totals. Once again, in order to earn any of those 43 delegates, a candidate must amass at least 15% of the statewide vote. Below is the likely allotment of district delegates.

MICHIGAN DELEGATE ALLOCATION BREAKDOWN

  # of delegates Biden Sanders Bloomberg Warren
Michigan Congress District 1  5 3 2 0 0
Michigan Congress District 2  5 1 4 0 0
Michigan Congress District 3  5 3 2 0 0
Michigan Congress District 4  4 2 2 0 0
Michigan Congress District 5  6 4 2 0 0
Michigan Congress District 6  5 3 2 0 0
Michigan Congress District 7  5 3 2 0 0
Michigan Congress District 8  6 3 3 0 0
Michigan Congress District 9  7 4 3 0 0
Michigan Congress District 10  4 2 2 0 0
Michigan Congress District 11  7 4 3 0 0
Michigan Congress District 12  7 4 3 0 0
Michigan Congress District 13  7 4 3 0 0
Michigan Congress District 14  9 6 3 0 0
Additional Statewide Delegates  43 24 19 0 0
Delegate TOTALS  125 70 55 0 0

 

Lastly, Michigan has 22 superdelegates: 12 Democratic National Committee members, 2 Senators, 1 Governor, and 7 US House Representatives.

MISSOURI (68 delegates + 12 superdelegates)

In Missouri, which Sanders lost to Hillary Clinton by only a slim margin (less than 2,000 votes), polling had Biden ahead, although not by an insurmountable margin. If Sanders was to stage a massive comeback on Tuesday, a state like Missouri is in one which he needed to make serious inroads, even if he was unlikely to win it outright. Sanders had essentially abandoned campaigning in Missouri in recent days in order to focus upon Michigan. This time, it wasn’t even close.

A significant portion of Missouri’s Democratic electorate is African-American, concentrated heavily in the St. Louis and Kansas City metro areas, as well as in the state’s rural southeast. Biden ran up his numbers in the counties near Kansas City; winning Clay County by 7,000 votes, Jackson County by 23,000 votes, and St. Louis County by a tally of 112,00 to 50,000.

In Missouri, 68 delegates (44 from Congressional districts + 24 statewide) to the Democratic National Convention are pledged to presidential contenders based on the results of the March 3rd vote. A mandatory 15% threshold is required in order for a presidential contender to be allocated National Convention delegates from EITHER the congressional district or statewide level.

100% Reporting

MISSOURI Total votes % of vote Congressional District Delegates State-wide Delegates Total Delegates
1: Biden  399,511 60.14% 28 16 44
2: Sanders 229,532 34.55% 16 8 24
3: Bloomberg 9,868 1.49% 0 0 0
4: Warren 8,120 1.22% 0 0 0
TOTAL VOTE 664,305      44  24 68

 

In Missouri, Biden won white voters (77% of total voters) by a 59%-36% margin, and African-Americans (17% of total voters) by a 72%-24% margin. Biden defeated Sanders 56%-38% among men (46% of voters), and won by a wider margin (64%-32%) among women, who constituted 54% of voters.

      POPULATION DEMOGRAPHICS in MISSOURI

State White Hispanic African-American Asian
Missouri 80.1%   4.0% 11.6%   1.9%

 

The age dynamics played out in Missouri just as it has done throughout the nomination process, with Sanders dominating among younger people, but performing weakly among older voters, who comprise a much larger portion of Democratic voters. In Missouri, 2/3 of the Democratic voters were over the age of 35, with Biden attracting them by wide margins.

MISSOURI 2020 Primary VOTING by AGE GROUP

AGE % of voters BIDEN SANDERS others
18-29 14% 25% 70% 5%
30-44 18% 37% 58% 5%
35-64 36% 68% 27% 5%
65+ 31% 81% 14% 5%

 

Meanwhile, Biden outgained Sanders in each of 3 issue areas that are generally prioritized by liberal voters. He bested the Vermont senator the 47% of voters who prioritized healthcare (61%-34%), as well as with the 19% who prioritized climate change (58%-39%), and he prevailed amongst the 20% who prioritized the issue of income equality (54%-40%). Lastly, in terms of the ‘electability’ thesis, among the 60% of voters who would rather nominate a candidate with the “ability to beat Donald Trump”, Biden outdistanced Sanders by a 70%-27% margin.

The 44 district delegates are allocated (proportionally) to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of Missouri’s 8 Congressional districts, which means in order to get any delegates from a particular district, a candidate requires at least 15% of the vote from that district. An additional 24 delegates (15 at-large + 9 PLEOs) will be allocated in accordance with the statewide vote totals. Once again, in order to earn any of those 24 delegates, a candidate must amass at least 15% of the statewide vote. Below is the likely allotment of district delegates.

 

MISSOURI DELEGATE ALLOCATION BREAKDOWN

  # of delegates Biden Sanders Bloomberg Warren
Missouri Congress District 1   8 5 3 0 0
Missouri Congress District 2   6 4 2 0 0
Missouri Congress District 3   5 3 2 0 0
Missouri Congress District 4   5 3 2 0 0
Missouri Congress District 5   6 4 2 0 0
Missouri Congress District 6   5 3 2 0 0
Missouri Congress District 7   5 3 2 0 0
Missouri Congress District 8   4 3 1 0 0
Missouri Congress District 7   5 3 2 0 0
Missouri Congress District 8    4 3 1 0 0
Additional Statewide Delegates  24 16 8 0 0
Delegate TOTALS  68 44 24 0 0

 

Finally, Missouri has 12 superdelegates: 9 Democratic National Committee members, 2 US House Representatives, and 1 Distinguished Party Leader (former House Majority Leader Richard Gephardt).

MISSISSIPPI (36 delegates + 5 superdelegates)

Mississippi was the best showing for the Biden campaign on Mini-Tuesday, with Biden capturing roughly 5-and-a-half times the number of voters as Sanders. The Senator from Vermont barely scraped up enough votes to make the viability threshold in 2 districts, and looks to have fallen short of the 15% threshold statewide. The former Vice President scored big wins in Hinds County (35,000-6,000), where the state capital of Jackson is located, and indeed rolled up large margins across the board, with Madison County (10,700-1,900), Lauderdale County (5,000-600), and Pike County (3,500-500) reflective of the large scale of the Biden win.

As in Missouri, Sanders campaign ceded the state to Biden, effectively ending their campaign in Mississippi days before the ballot, even cancelling a scheduled rally in Jackson, in pursuing an “all hands on deck” approached to attempting to win Michigan. Here it was particularly costly, since it was probably the reason he failed to clear 15% of the vote. In Alabama, with similar dynamics, Sanders was able to clear that threshold, and at least scooped up 8 of the 52 delegates. However, in Mississippi, Biden captured nearly ALL (34 of 36) of the state’s delegates.

100% Reporting

MISSISSIPPI Total votes % of vote Congressional  District Delegates State-wide Delegates Total Delegates
1: Biden  218,426 81.08% 21 13 34
2: Sanders 39,930 14.82% 2 0 2
3: Bloomberg 6,629 2.46% 0 0 0
4: Warren 1,417 0.53% 0 0 0
TOTALS 269,388   23 13 36

 

In Mississippi, 36 delegates (23 from Congressional districts + 13 statewide) to the Democratic National Convention are pledged to presidential contenders based on the results of the March 3rd vote. A mandatory 15% threshold is required in order for a presidential contender to be allocated National Convention delegates from EITHER the congressional district or statewide level.

In Mississippi, Biden won white voters by a wide margin (70%-25%), though they were just over a quarter of the population, and African-Americans by an 87%-10% margin. The latter group comprised a whopping 69% of total voters in the Democratic primary in Mississippi. Biden defeated Sanders 78%-18% among men (42% of voters), and won by a wider margin (83%-12%) among women, who constituted 58% of voters.

      POPULATION DEMOGRAPHICS in MISSISSIPPI

State White Hispanic African-American Asian
Mississippi 57.3%  3.0% 37.2%  1.0%

 

The age dynamics played were even more supportive of Biden’s walkover win here. What turned the state into a blowout was the fact that he posted crushing wins in all four age categories, even scoring a 61%-35% lead with the 19-29 year-olds, which is usually reliable Sanders’ territory. Biden more than tripled Sanders in the 30-44 age group, and recorded huge margins in the 35-64 and 65+ demographics. In the latter category, he secured 90% of the voters against a paltry 6% for Sanders. Together, those two voting blocs comprised more than ¾ of the voters in Mississippi’s 2020 Democratic primary.

MISSISSIPPI 2020 Primary VOTING by AGE GROUP

AGE % of voters BIDEN SANDERS others
18-29 13% 61% 35% 4%
30-44 19% 72% 22% 6%
35-64 42% 86% 11% 3%
65+ 36% 90%   6% 4%

 

Biden captured the 23% constituency of voters who self-identify as “very liberal” (72%-21%), as well as the 23% who consider themselves “somewhat liberal” by 76%-20%.

In terms of issue voting, Biden outgained Sanders in Mississippi with those voters in each of 2 issue areas that are often prioritized by liberal voters. Here he bested the Vermont senator with the 42% of voters who prioritized healthcare (81%-14%), and outpolled Sanders leading in with the 26% of voters who prioritized income equality (79%-16%). Lastly, in terms of the ‘electability’ thesis, among the 51% of voters who would rather nominate a candidate with the “ability to beat Donald Trump”, Biden outdistanced Sanders by a 86%-11% margin.

The 23 district delegates are allocated (proportionally) to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of Mississippi’s 4 Congressional districts, which means in order to get any delegates from a particular district, a candidate requires at least 15% of the vote from that district. An additional 13 delegates (5 at-large + 8 PLEOs) will be allocated in accordance with the statewide vote totals. Once again, in order to earn any of those 13 delegates, a candidate must amass at least 15% of the statewide vote. Below is the likely allotment of district delegates.

MISSISSIPPI DELEGATE ALLOCATION BREAKDOWN

  # of delegates Biden Sanders Bloomberg Warren
Mississippi Congress District 1   5 4 1 0 0
Mississippi Congress District 2   9 9 0 0 0
Mississippi Congress District 3   5 5 0 0 0
Mississippi Congress District 4   4 3 1 0 0
Additional Statewide Delegates  13 13 0 0 0
Delegate TOTALS  36 34 2 0 0

 

Mississippi has 5 superdelegates: 4 Democratic National Committee members, and 1 US House Representatives.

IDAHO (20 delegates + 5 superdelegates)

Joe Biden was finally able to take a Western state on Tuesday, scoring a solid 6-point victory in Idaho. Idaho is one of 10 states that shifted this year from the caucus format to a primary. Voter turnout more than tripled as compared to the 2016 caucuses, which Bernie Sanders won over Hillary Clinton. In 2016 it provided one of Sanders most lopsided wins, as he took the caucuses 78%-21%, garnering 18 delegates versus the 5 awarded to Hillary Clinton. Although it is solidly Republican state that Trump won by 32 points in 2016, there are some signs of life among Democrats there. Democrats were able to flip 2 state legislature seats in 2018.

The previously cash-strapped Biden campaign had not invested much  on advertising in Idaho, and Sanders team had spent an estimated $67,000. So, while Biden was again outspent, the financial figures involved were not significant. Because Idaho is demographically and ideologically similar to Utah, which Sanders won handily on Super Tuesday, the dynamics had looked favorable as a mini-firewall for the progressive leader. With a rural population, a fairly sizeable Hispanic population, and almost no African-Americans to speak of, the demographics should have been favorable to Sanders. While there are not a lot of numbers to crunch here, with only 20 delegates at stake, this was not a valuable prize in terms of the numbers game. But with the Sanders campaign desperate need of wins, losing part of his Western firewall was emblematic of another bad night for him.

      POPULATION DEMOGRAPHICS in IDAHO

State White Hispanic African-American Asian
Idaho 82.8%  12.0% 0.7%  1.3%

 

In Idaho, 20 delegates (13 from Congressional districts + 7 statewide) to the Democratic National Convention are pledged to presidential contenders based on the results of the March 3rd vote. A mandatory 15% threshold is required in order for a presidential contender to be allocated National Convention delegates from EITHER the congressional district or statewide level.

100% Reporting

IDAHO Total votes % of vote Congressional District Delegates State-wide Delegates Total Delegates
1: Biden  52,630 48.85% 7 4 11
2: Sanders 45,83 42.52% 6 3 9
3: Warren 2,855 2.65% 0 0 0
4: Bloomberg 2,579 2.39% 0 0 0
TOTALS 107,745    13  7 20

 

The 13 district delegates are allocated (proportionally) to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of Idaho’s 2 Congressional districts, which means in order to get any delegates from a particular district, a candidate requires at least 15% of the vote from that district. An additional 7 delegates (3 at-large + 4 PLEOs) will be allocated in accordance with the statewide vote totals. Once again, in order to earn any of those 7 delegates, a candidate must amass at least 15% of the statewide vote. Below is the likely allotment of district delegates.

Idaho has only 2 Congressional districts

IDAHO DELEGATE ALLOCATION BREAKDOWN

  # of delegates Biden Sanders Bloomberg Warren
Idaho Congress District 1  6 3 3 0 0
Idaho Congress District 2  7 4 3 0 0
Additional Statewide Delegates  7 4 3 0 0
Delegate TOTALS  20 11 9 0 0

 

Idaho has 5 superdelegates: all 5 are Democratic National Committee members.

NORTH DAKOTA (14 delegates + 4 superdelegates)

One of the 4 Democratic caucus states in this nomination season (in 2016 there 14 caucus states), North Dakota is actually a “firehouse caucus,” which means that it is a primary election that is administered by the state party. The term comes from the fact that such caucuses were originally held in public buildings such as firehouses. Sanders won big in North Dakota in 2016, and he carried the state again, albeit by only 13 points, not exactly a dominant performance. Certainly nothing on par with Biden’s sweep of the Southern states thus far. Sanders had invested over $100,000 in the state, while the Biden team had not invested at all. North Dakota does not possess huge media markets.

      POPULATION DEMOGRAPHICS in NORTH DAKOTA

State White Hispanic African-American Asian
North Dakota 86.6%  3.3% 2.0%  1.2%

 

At the end of the day, even this 13-point victory hardly bore any fruit. North Dakota was the day’s smallest prize, and the 14 delegates were almost evenly divided, with Sanders taking 8 and Biden 6.

In North Dakota, 14 delegates (9 from its one Congressional district + 5 statewide) to the Democratic National Convention are pledged to presidential contenders based on the results of the March 3rd vote. A mandatory 15% threshold is required in order for a presidential contender to be allocated National Convention delegates from EITHER the congressional district or statewide level.

The 9 district delegates are allocated (proportionally) to presidential contenders based on the primary results in the state’s one Congressional district, which means in order to get any delegates from a particular district, a candidate requires at least 15% of the vote from that district. An additional 5 delegates (2 at-large + 3 PLEOs) will be allocated in accordance with the statewide vote totals. Once again, in order to earn any of those 5 delegates, a candidate must amass at least 15% of the statewide vote. Below is the likely allotment of delegates.

100% Reporting

NORTH DAKOTA votes % of vote Congressional  District Delegates State-wide Delegates Total Delegates
1: Sanders 7,671 53.32% 5 3 8
2: Biden 5,740 39.90% 4 2 6
3: Warren 381 2.65% 0 0 0
TOTALS 14,387   9  5 14

 

North Dakota has 4 superdelegates: 4 Democratic National Committee members.

WASHINGTON (89 delegates + 20 superdelegates)

Washington State votes predominantly by mail, and by the date of the primary about 1.6 million ballots had been returned. Like North Dakota, Washington has shifted from the caucus format, which Sanders dominated in 2016 with 72% to 27% (earning 74 delegates versus the 27 that went to Clinton), recording one of his biggest wins and best delegate margins.

Thanks to mail-in voting, both Elizabeth Warren and Michael Bloomberg accumulated a fair number of votes have sizeable chunks of the vote this far (9.6% and 8.2%, respectively), which will undermined Sanders ability to score a victory here. With over 1.4 million ballots now counted, the race has been called for Biden (37.7%-35.7%). The former Vice president was able to carry the state’s 3 largest counties. In King County, home to Seattle and roughly 2.2 million people, and headquarters of Amazon and Microsoft, Biden has outpolled the Senator from Vermont (206,000-198,000). Biden has won Washington’s second most populous county, Pierce County, by a similar margin (59,000-52,000). In Snohomish County, which includes about 900,000 people and the city of Tacoma, Biden is ahead (60,000 to 54,000).

Only in Whatcom County was Sanders able to make significant gains (establishing a 26,000 to 18,000 lead), but that was far too little to turn the tide. This state was supposed to be a Sanders’ firewall, where he could post a big win based on his core supporters. The fact that he could not even carry the state shows that his path to the nomination has all but vanished.

      POPULATION DEMOGRAPHICS in WASHINGTON

State White Hispanic African-American Asian
Washington 70.4%   12.2%      3.7%   8.0%

 

In Washington, 89 delegates (58 from Congressional districts + 31 statewide) to the Democratic National Convention are pledged to presidential contenders based on the results of the March 3rd vote. A mandatory 15% threshold is required in order for a presidential contender to be allocated National Convention delegates from EITHER the congressional district or statewide level.

87% Reporting

WASHINGTON votes % Congress District Delegates State-wide Delegates Total Delegates
1: Biden   544,978 37.7% 32 16 48
2: Sanders 515,411 35.7% 26 15 41
3: Warren 138,171  9.6% 0 0 0
4: Bloomberg 119,052  8.2% 0 0 0
TOTALS 1,444,198   58 31 89

 

The 58 district delegates are allocated (proportionally) to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of Washington’s 10 Congressional districts, which means in order to get any delegates from a particular district, a candidate requires at least 15% of the vote from that district. An additional 31 delegates (12 at-large + 19 PLEOs) will be allocated in accordance with the statewide vote totals. Once again, in order to earn any of those 31 delegates, a candidate must amass at least 15% of the statewide vote. Below is the likely allotment of district delegates.

WASHINGTON DELEGATE ALLOCATION BREAKDOWN

  # of delegates Biden Sanders Bloomberg Warren
Washington Cong District 1   6 3 3 0 0
Washington Cong District 2   6 3 3 0 0
Washington Cong District 3   5 3 2 0 0
Washington Cong District 4   3 2 1 0 0
Washington Cong District 5   4 2 2 0 0
Washington Cong District 6   6 3 3 0 0
Washington Cong District 7   11 6 5 0 0
Washington Cong District 8    5 3 2 0 0
Washington Cong District 9   7 4 3 0 0
Washington Cong District 10   5 3 2 0 0
Additional Statewide Delegates  31 16 15 0 0
Delegate TOTALS  89 48 41 0 0

 

Washington has 20 superdelegates: 10 Democratic National Committee members, 2 Senators, 1 Governor, and 7 US House Representatives.

 

====================================================

Updated figures for the California, Colorado, and Utah, and a schedule of all the Democratic primaries.

CALIFORNIA  (415 delegates + 79 superdelegates)

POPULATION DEMOGRAPHICS in CALIFORNIA

State # of delegates White Hispanic African-American Asian Voted for in past 3

General Elections

California 415 37.0%   39.1%     5.5%  14.4% 2008 Obama  61.01%

2012  Obama  60.24%

2016  Clinton  61.73%

 

In California, 415 delegates (271 from Congressional districts + 144 statewide) to the Democratic National Convention are pledged to presidential contenders based on the results of the March 3rd vote. A mandatory 15% threshold is required in order for a presidential contender to be allocated National Convention delegates from EITHER the congressional district or statewide level.

 

CALIFORNIA Total votes % of vote Congressional  District Delegates State-wide Delegates Total Delegates
1: Sanders 1,828,560 34.74%   141   80 221
2: Biden  1,470,972 27.95%   106   64 170
3: Warren 702,527 13.35%    14     0   14
4: Bloomberg 660,353 12.55%    10     0   10
5: Buttigieg 243,074 4.62%      0     0     0
6: Klobuchar  123,798 2.35%      0     0     0
7: Steyer 108,491 2.06%      0     0     0
TOTALS 5,263,777   271 144 415

 

The 271 district delegates are allocated (proportionally) to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of California’s 53 Congressional districts, which means in order to get any delegates from a particular district, a candidate requires at least 15% of the vote from that district. An additional 144 delegates (90 at-large + 54 PLEOs) will be allocated in accordance with the statewide vote totals. Once again, in order to earn any of those 144 delegates, a candidate must amass at least 15% of the statewide vote.

CALIFORNIA DELEGATE ALLOCATION BREAKDOWN

                      (all votes not yet counted)

  # of delegates Biden Sanders Bloomberg Warren
California Congress District 1      4 2 2 0  0
California Congress District 2      6 2 3 0  1
California Congress District 3 5 2 3 0  0
California Congress District 4 5 3 2 0  0
California Congress District 5 6 2 3 1  0
California Congress District 6 5 2 3 0  0
California Congress District 7 5 3 2 0  0
California Congress District 8 4 2 2 0  0
California Congress District 9 5 2 2 1  0
California Congress District 10 4 1 2 1  0
California Congress District 11 6 2 2 1 1
California Congress District 12 7 2 3 0  2
California Congress District 13 7 2 3 0  2
California Congress District 14 6 2 3 1  0
California Congress District 15 6 2 3 1  0
California Congress District 16 4 2 2 0  0
California Congress District 17 5 2 3 0  0
California Congress District 18 6 2 2 1  1
California Congress District 19 6 2 4 0  0
California Congress District 20 5 2 3  0  0
California Congress District 21 4 2 2  0  0
California Congress District 22 4 2 2   0  0
California Congress District 23 4 2 2   0  0
California Congress District 24 5 2 2   0  1
California Congress District 25 5 2 3   0  0
California Congress District 26 5 2 3   0  0
California Congress District 27 5 2 2   0  1
California Congress District 28 6 2 3   0  1
California Congress District 29 5 2 3   0  0
California Congress District 30 6 2 3   0  1
California Congress District 31 5 2 3   0  0
California Congress District 32 5 2 3   0  0
California Congress District 33 6 3 2   0  1
California Congress District 34 5 1 4   0  0
California Congress District 35 4 2 2   0  0
California Congress District 36 4 2 1   1  0
California Congress District 37 6 2 3   0 1
California Congress District 38 5 2 3   0  0
California Congress District 39 5 2 3   0  0
California Congress District 40 5 1 4   0  0
California Congress District 41 5 2 3   0  0
California Congress District 42 5 2 3   0  0
California Congress District 43 5 2 3   0  0
California Congress District 44 5 2 3   0  0
California Congress District 45 5 2 3   0  0
California Congress District 46 4 1 3   0  0
California Congress District 47 5 2 3   0  0
California Congress District 48 5 2 2   1  0
California Congress District 49 5 2 2   1  0
California Congress District 50 4 2 2   0  0
California Congress District 51 5 2 3   0  0
California Congress District 52 6 3 3   0  0
California Congress District 53 6 2 3   0  1
Additional Statewide Delegates   144  64 80   0  0
Delegate TOTALS  415  170 221   10  14

 

Status: Unofficial.
As of 14 March 2020 07:16 EDT.

Contest Sanders Biden Warren Bloomberg
  Pop
Vote
Qual
Vote
Del Pop
Vote
Alloc Del Pop
Vote
Alloc Del Pop
Vote
Alloc Del Pop
Vote
Alloc Del
CD1 86,984 49,521 4 28,747 2.322 2 20,774 1.678 2 11,304     9,127    
CD2 168,408 121,305 6 50,926 2.519 3 43,133 2.133 2 27,246 1.348 1 24,694    
CD3 88,297 55,150 5 28,381 2.573 3 26,769 2.427 2 10,746     11,031    
CD4 108,408 59,522 5 27,620 2.320 2 31,902 2.680 3 12,475     16,194    
CD5 143,105 106,167 6 45,002 2.543 3 39,113 2.210 2 18,298     22,052 1.246 1
CD6 96,606 59,286 5 33,112 2.793 3 26,174 2.207 2 14,031     11,012    
CD7 92,172 55,035 5 27,161 2.468 2 27,874 2.532 3 10,177     12,799    
CD8 55,810 37,095 4 19,664 2.120 2 17,431 1.880 2 4,983     6,615    
CD9 69,605 55,797 5 21,625 1.938 2 22,580 2.023 2 5,050     11,592 1.039 1
CD10 63,225 49,706 4 21,178 1.704 2 18,407 1.481 1 4,720     10,121 0.814 1
CD11 143,039 126,913 6 39,268 1.856 2 43,321 2.048 2 21,518 1.017 1 22,806 1.078 1
CD12 230,031 186,461 7 77,338 2.903 3 55,155 2.071 2 53,968 2.026 2 25,503    
CD13 201,533 170,655 7 74,172 3.042 3 44,908 1.842 2 51,575 2.116 2 17,227    
CD14 153,479 112,771 6 48,205 2.565 3 40,445 2.152 2 22,907     24,121 1.283 1
CD15 113,058 86,860 6 36,868 2.547 3 32,983 2.278 2 13,296     17,009 1.175 1
CD16 56,102 37,227 4 22,373 2.404 2 14,854 1.596 2 4,081     7,230    
CD17 103,628 63,291 5 36,655 2.896 3 26,636 2.104 2 13,101     15,129    
CD18 169,555 148,903 6 44,031 1.774 2 49,130 1.980 2 29,142 1.174 1 26,600 1.072 1
CD19 111,155 71,318 6 42,325 3.561 4 28,993 2.439 2 12,001     15,364    
CD20 123,360 79,061 5 46,990 2.972 3 32,071 2.028 2 16,342     13,945    
CD21 34,999 23,625 4 14,594 2.471 2 9,031 1.529 2 1,814     4,957    
CD22 65,619 41,577 4 22,474 2.162 2 19,103 1.838 2 5,809     8,571    
CD23 49,819 31,636 4 16,552 2.093 2 15,084 1.907 2 4,569     6,284    
CD24 123,087 92,726 5 40,539 2.186 2 33,571 1.810 2 18,616 1.004 1 13,541    
CD25 77,355 53,068 5 27,096 2.553 3 25,972 2.447 2 7,784     7,864    
CD26 102,204 65,078 5 33,293 2.558 3 31,785 2.442 2 12,168     12,913    
CD27 104,139 83,374 5 36,813 2.208 2 30,385 1.822 2 16,176 0.970 1 10,957    
CD28 134,379 112,302 6 52,474 2.804 3 30,679 1.639 2 29,149 1.557 1 10,510    
CD29 72,470 51,210 5 35,561 3.472 3 15,649 1.528 2 8,034     5,788    
CD30 121,060 94,795 6 38,558 2.441 3 37,748 2.389 2 18,489 1.170 1 14,045    
CD31 70,625 50,148 5 27,184 2.710 3 22,964 2.290 2 5,908     7,907    
CD32 73,920 53,523 5 32,663 3.051 3 20,860 1.949 2 5,474     7,948    
CD33 147,247 111,055 6 37,392 2.020 2 50,101 2.707 3 23,562 1.273 1 21,897    
CD34 90,298 62,961 5 47,677 3.786 4 15,284 1.214 1 13,261     7,621    
CD35 59,362 44,444 4 27,334 2.460 2 17,110 1.540 2 3,564     6,595    
CD36 76,777 54,440 4 19,608 1.441 1 22,555 1.657 2 6,396     12,277 0.902 1
CD37 135,888 111,845 6 47,223 2.533 3 42,690 2.290 2 21,932 1.177 1 14,296    
CD38 83,676 60,044 5 34,154 2.844 3 25,890 2.156 2 6,222     9,108    
CD39 79,301 52,981 5 28,709 2.709 3 24,272 2.291 2 7,642     10,108    
CD40 57,642 44,124 5 31,988 3.625 4 12,136 1.375 1 3,123     5,320    
CD41 60,587 42,954 5 25,691 2.991 3 17,263 2.009 2 4,732     6,908    
CD42 61,865 41,285 5 21,867 2.648 3 19,418 2.352 2 4,988     8,053    
CD43 86,903 60,708 5 30,624 2.522 3 30,084 2.478 2 8,900     9,047    
CD44 69,133 50,336 5 29,590 2.939 3 20,746 2.061 2 4,260     6,870    
CD45 105,858 66,370 5 35,360 2.664 3 31,010 2.336 2 12,768     14,480    
CD46 63,929 46,974 4 34,192 2.912 3 12,782 1.088 1 4,955     6,771    
CD47 91,445 59,412 5 34,409 2.896 3 25,003 2.104 2 11,040     10,068    
CD48 97,918 75,226 5 29,464 1.958 2 29,723 1.976 2 10,847     16,039 1.066 1
CD49 104,744 77,871 5 29,722 1.908 2 32,212 2.068 2 13,172     15,937 1.023 1
CD50 72,904 44,189 4 24,081 2.180 2 20,108 1.820 2 8,424     9,853    
CD51 61,177 43,702 5 28,838 3.299 3 14,864 1.701 2 4,365     7,241    
CD52 128,075 76,294 6 37,619 2.958 3 38,675 3.042 3 19,001     17,575    
CD53 121,812 95,560 6 43,576 2.736 3 33,562 2.107 2 18,422 1.157 1 12,833    
PLEO 5,263,777 3,299,532 54 1,828,560 29.926 30 1,470,972 24.074 24 702,527     660,353    
At-Large 5,263,777 3,299,532 90 1,828,560 49.877 50 1,470,972 40.123 40 702,527     660,353    
Total
Delegates
    415     221     170     14     10

 

California has 79 superdelegates: 29 Democratic National Committee members, 1 Governor (Gavin Newsom), 2 Senators, and 47 US House Representatives.

============================================

COLORADO (67 delegates + 13 superdelegates)

POPULATION DEMOGRAPHICS in COLORADO

State # of delegates White Hispanic African-American Asian Voted for in past 3

General Elections

Colorado   67 68.2%   21.5%    3.9%   3.1% 2008  Obama 61.80%

2012   Obama  53.66%

2016  Clinton  48.16%

 

In Colorado, 67 delegates (44 from Congressional districts + 23 statewide) to the Democratic National Convention are pledged to presidential contenders based on the results of the March 3rd vote. A mandatory 15% threshold is required in order for a presidential contender to be allocated National Convention delegates from EITHER the congressional district or statewide level.

88% reporting

COLORADO Total votes % of vote Congressional District Delegates State-wide Delegates Total Delegates
Sanders 346,786 36.84%   15   8  23
Biden 232,099 24.65%   12   6  18
Bloomberg 175,521 18.64%     9   5  14
Warren 165,513 17.58%     8   4  12
Gabbard 9,854 1.05%     0   0    0
TOTAL VOTE 941,402     44  23   67

 

The 44 district delegates are allocated (proportionally) to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of Colorado’s 7 Congressional districts, which means in order to get any delegates from a particular district, a candidate requires at least 15% of the vote from that district. An additional 23 delegates (14 at-large + 9 PLEOs) will be allocated in accordance with the statewide vote totals. Once again, in order to earn any of those 23 delegates, a candidate must amass at least 15% of the statewide vote.

COLORADO DELEGATE ALLOCATION BREAKDOWN

  # of delegates Biden Sanders Bloomberg Warren
Colorado Congress District 1   9  2   3   2  2
Colorado Congress District 2   9  2   3   2  2
Colorado Congress District 3   5  2   2   1  0
Colorado Congress District 4   5  1   2   1  1
Colorado Congress District 5   4  1   1   1  1
Colorado Congress District 6   6  2   2   1  1
Colorado Congress District 7   6  2   2   1  1
Additional Statewide Delegates 23  6   8   5  4
Delegate TOTALS 67 18   23   14  12

 

Colorado has 13 superdelegates: 6 Democratic National Committee members, 1 Governor (Jared Polis), 1 Senator, and 5 US House Representatives, and 1 Distinguished Party Leader (former DNC Chair Roy Romer).

==================================================

UTAH (29 delegates + 6 superdelegates)

POPULATION DEMOGRAPHICS in UTAH

State # of delegates White Hispanic African-American Asian Voted for in past 3

General Elections

Utah   29 78.3%   14.0%    1.2%   2.4% 2008 McCain   62.58%

2012  Romney  72.79%

2016  Trump    45.54%

 

In Utah, 29 delegates (19 district delegates + 10 statewide) to the Democratic National Convention are pledged to presidential contenders based on the results of the March 3rd vote. A mandatory 15% threshold is required in order for a presidential contender to be allocated National Convention delegates from EITHER the congressional district or statewide level.

77% Reporting

UTAH Total votes % of vote Congressional

District Delegates

State-wide Delegates Total Delegates
Sanders 74,499 35.27%   9   4 13
Biden 39,005 17.41%   5   2   7
Warren 34,419 16.29%   4   2   6
Bloomberg 33,282 15.76%   1   2   3
Buttigieg 18,528 8.77%   0   0   0
Klobuchar 7,512 3.56%   0   0   0
Gabbard 1,629 0.77%   0   0   0
TOTALS 211,241   19 10 29

 

The 19 district delegates are allocated (proportionally) to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the Utah’s 4 congressional districts, which means in order to get any delegates from a particular district, a candidate requires at least 15% of the vote from that district. An additional 10 delegates (6 at-large + 4 PLEOs) will be allocated in accordance with the statewide vote totals. Once again, in order to earn any of those 10 delegates, a candidate must amass at least 15% of the statewide vote.

77% REPORTING

UTAH DELEGATE ALLOCATION BREAKDOWN

  # of delegates Biden Sanders Bloomberg Warren
Utah Congress District 1   2  1   1   0  0
Utah Congress District 2   6  1   3   1  1
Utah Congress District 3   4  1   2   0  1
Utah Congress District 4   7  2   3   0  2
Additional Statewide Delegates   10  2   4   2  2
Delegate TOTALS   29  7  13   3  6

 

Utah has 6 superdelegates: 5 Democratic National Committee members, and 1 US House Representative (Ben McAdams, Utah’s 4th Congressional district).

 

================================================

 

SCHEDULE of DEMOCRATIC PARTY PRIMARIES

 

Dates Voting Jurisdictions # of Pledged Delegates (cumulative total) Percentage of Pledged Delegates (Cumulative %)
February 3-29 Iowa (41); NH (24); Nevada (36); South Carolina (54) 155 3.9%
March 3 Alabama (52); American Samoa (6); Arkansas (31); California (415); Colorado (67); Democrats Abroad* (13); Maine (24); Massachusetts (91); Minnesota (75); North Carolina (110); Oklahoma (37); Tennessee (64); Texas (228); Utah (29); Vermont (16); Virginia (99) 1,357 (1,512) 34.10% (38.0%)
March 10 Idaho (20); Michigan (125); Mississippi (36); Missouri (68); North Dakota (14); Washington (89)   352 (1,864) 8.84% (46.84%)
March 17-29 Arizona (67); Florida (219); Illinois (155); Northern Marianas (6); Ohio (136); Georgia (105); Puerto Rico (51)  739 (2,603) 18.57% (65.4%)
April 4-7 Alaska (15); Hawaii (24); Louisiana (54); Wyoming (14); Wisconsin (84)   191 (2,794)     4.8% (70.2%)
April 28 Connecticut (60); Delaware (21); Maryland (96); New York (274); Pennsylvania (186); Rhode Island (26)   663 (3,457) 16.66% (86.9%)
May 2-19 Guam (7); Kansas (39); Indiana (82); Nebraska (29); West Virginia (28); Kentucky (54); Oregon (61)   300 (3,757)    7.53% (94.4%)
June 2-9 District of Columbia (20); Montana (19); New Jersey (126); New Mexico (34); South Dakota (16); Virgin Islands (7)   222 (3,979)    5.57% (100%)
         3,979     (100%)

 

 

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Dr. Troy McGrath is an political commentator, educator, academic administrator, and international curriculum consultant based in the US and Russia. His post-graduate work was undertaken at Columbia University, where he earned an MA and an M.Phil in Political Science, and a PhD in International Relations. He earned a number of fellowships, including a National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council Grant (taken in Latvia), a Strategic Studies Institute Fellowship (split between the Institute and Oxford University) and a Foreign & Commonwealth Research Fellowship (taken at the LSE), and served on Fulbright and Muskie Selection Committees and as an Evaluator for the SSRC’s “Next Generation Social Sciences in Africa Fellowship”. Subsequently, he completed a Certificate in Education Management at Harvard University (2005), as well as Certificates from the World Bank Institute in “Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations & Fiscal Decentralization” and on “Public Expenditure, Institutional Reforms & Service Delivery.” He has served in administrative and various academic appointments in the US, and has worked as a faculty and administrator at universities in Albania, Czech Republic, Hungary, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, Nigeria, China, and Russia. In addition, he has worked with Native Americans (Haskell Indian Nations University in Kansas), helped run a training program for Burmese political refugees in Thailand. Currently his teaching and research is focused upon the political and social ramifications of contemporary trends in Mass Media and Social Media.
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